Foreign Exchange Risk

Foreign Exchange Risk

Foreign exchange risk (also known as exchange rate risk or currency risk) is a financial risk posed by an exposure to unanticipated changes in the exchange rate between two currencies. Investors and multinational businesses exporting or importing goods and services or making foreign investments throughout the global economy are faced with an exchange rate risk which can have severe financial consequences if not managed appropriately.

•    
Types of exposure
Foreign currency exposures are generally categorized into the following three distinct types: transaction exposure, economic exposure, and translation exposure. These exposures pose risks to firms' cash flows, competitiveness, market value, and financial reporting.

Transaction exposure
A firm has transaction exposure whenever it has contractual cash flows (receivables and payables) whose values are subject to unanticipated changes in exchange rates due to a contract being denominated in a foreign currency. To realize the domestic value of its foreign-denominated cash flows, the firm must exchange foreign currency for domestic currency. As firms negotiate contracts with set prices and delivery dates in the face of a volatile foreign exchange market with exchange rates constantly fluctuating, the firms face a risk of changes in the exchange rate between the foreign and domestic currency. Firms generally become exposed as a direct result of activities such as importing and exporting or borrowing and investing. Exchange rates may move by up to 10% within any single year, which can significantly affect a firm's cash flows, meaning a 10% decline in the value of a receivable or a 10% rise in the value of a payable. Such outcomes could be troublesome as export profits could be negated entirely or import costs could rise substantially.

Economic exposure
A firm has economic exposure (also known as operating exposure) to the degree that its market value is influenced by unexpected exchange rate fluctuations. Such exchange rate adjustments can severely affect the firm's position with regards to its competitors, the firm's future cash flows, and ultimately the firm's value. Economic exposure can affect the present value of future cash flows. Any transaction that exposes the firm to foreign exchange risk also exposes the firm economically, but economic exposure can be caused by other business activities and investments which may not be mere international transactions, such as future cash flows from fixed assets. A shift in exchange rates that influences the demand for a good in some country would also be an economic exposure for a firm that sells that good.

Translation exposure
A firm's translation exposure is the extent to which its financial reporting is affected by exchange rate movements. As all firms generally must prepare consolidated financial statements for reporting purposes, the consolidation process for multinationals entails translating foreign assets and liabilities or the financial statements of foreign subsidiaries from foreign to domestic currency. While translation exposure may not affect a firm's cash flows, it could have a significant impact on a firm's reported earnings and therefore its stock price. Translation exposure is distinguished from transaction risk as a result of income and losses from various types of risk having different accounting treatments. Translation gives special consideration to assets and liabilities with regards to foreign exchange risk, whereas exposures to revenues and expenses can often be managed ex ante by managing transactional exposures when cash flows take place.

Contingent exposure
A firm has contingent exposure when bidding for foreign projects or negotiating other contracts or foreign direct investments. Such an exposure arises from the potential for a firm to suddenly face a transactional or economic foreign exchange risk, contingent on the outcome of some contract or negotiation. For example, a firm could be waiting for a project bid to be accepted by a foreign business or government that if accepted would result in an immediate receivable. While waiting, the firm faces a contingent exposure from the uncertainty as to whether or not that receivable will happen. If the bid is accepted and a receivable is paid the firm then faces a transaction exposure, so a firm may prefer to manage contingent exposures.

Measurement
If foreign exchange markets are efficient such that purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, and the international Fisher effect hold true, a firm or investor needn't protect against foreign exchange risk due to an indifference toward international investment decisions. A deviation from one or more of the three international parity conditions generally needs to occur for an exposure to foreign exchange risk.
Financial risk is most commonly measured in terms of the variance or standard deviation of a variable such as percentage returns or rates of change. In foreign exchange, a relevant factor would be the rate of change of the spot exchange rate between currencies. Variance represents exchange rate risk by the spread of exchange rates, whereas standard deviation represents exchange rate risk by the amount exchange rates deviate, on average, from the mean exchange rate in a probability distribution. A higher standard deviation would signal a greater currency risk. Economists have criticized the accuracy of standard deviation as a risk indicator for its uniform treatment of deviations, be they positive or negative, and for automatically squaring deviation values. Alternatives such as average absolute deviation and semivariance have been advanced for measuring financial risk.

Value at Risk
Practitioners have advanced and regulators have accepted a financial risk management technique called value at risk (VAR), which examines the tail end of a distribution of returns for changes in exchange rates to highlight the outcomes with the worst returns. Banks in Europe have been authorized by the Bank for International Settlements to employ VAR models of their own design in establishing capital requirements for given levels of market risk. Using the VAR model helps risk managers determine the amount that could be lost on an investment portfolio over a certain period of time with a given probability of changes in exchange rates.

Management
See also: Foreign exchange hedge
Managers of multinational firms employ a number of foreign exchange hedging strategies in order to protect against exchange rate risk. Transaction exposure is often managed either with the use of the money markets, foreign exchange derivatives such as forward contracts, futures contracts, options, and swaps, or with operational techniques such as currency invoicing, leading and lagging of receipts and payments, and exposure netting.
Firms may exercise alternative strategies to financial hedging for managing their economic or operating exposure, by carefully selecting production sites with a mind for lowering costs, using a policy of flexible sourcing in its supply chain management, diversifying its export market across a greater number of countries, or by implementing strong research and development activities and differentiating its products in pursuit of greater inelasticity and less foreign exchange risk exposure.
Translation exposure is largely dependent on the accounting standards of the home country and the translation methods required by those standards. For example, the United States Federal Accounting Standards Board specifies when and where to use certain methods such as the temporal method and current rate method. Firms can manage translation exposure by performing a balance sheet hedge. Since translation exposure arises from discrepancies between net assets and net liabilities on a balance sheet solely from exchange rate differences. Following this logic, a firm could acquire an appropriate amount of exposed assets or liabilities to balance any outstanding discrepancy. Foreign exchange derivatives may also be used to hedge against translation exposure.

History
Many businesses were unconcerned with and did not manage foreign exchange risk under the Bretton Woods system of international monetary order. It wasn't until the onset of floating exchange rates following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system that firms perceived an increasing risk from exchange rate fluctuations and began trading an increasing volume of financial derivatives in an effort to hedge their exposure. The outbreak of currency crises in the 1990s and early 2000s, such as the Mexican peso crisis, Asian currency crisis, 1998 Russian financial crisis, and the Argentine peso crisis, substantial losses from foreign exchange have led firms to pay closer attention to foreign exchange risk.

Project finance
Foreign exchange risk has been shown to be particularly significant and particularly damaging for very large, one-off investment megaprojects. Such projects are typically financed by very large debts denominated in foreign currencies. Megaprojects have been shown to be prone to ending up in debt traps where, due to cost overruns, schedule delays, unforeseen foreign currency and interest rate increases, the costs of servicing debt become larger than the revenues available to do so. Financial restructuring is typically the consequence and is common for megaprojects. 

(Source: Wikipedia)